目的 以2013年1月—2023年7月我国中药材市场当归价格指数数据为基础，采用自回归条件异方差模型（autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity，ARCH）类模型分析当归价格指数波动阶段性特征，并结合实地调研结果探讨造成当归价格指数出现非周期性异动的影响因素，为引导当归市场价格回归合理区间提供对策建议。方法 利用Eviews 10.0软件对127个当归价格指数原始样本数据进行平稳序列处理，构建ARCH类模型，检验数据的聚集效应和杠杆效应，分析风险收益特点，并完成价格指数拟合和趋势预测。结果 当归价格指数波动呈现波动集簇并具有“长期记忆性”，且存在不对称性和杠杆效应，“利空消息”的影响程度大于“利好消息”，价格指数拟合结果预测未来仍将呈上涨趋势，不排除非周期性异动可能。基于实证结果和调研数据分析可知，产业外部环境、政策配套机制的完善程度、外部资本进入以及供应端集约化水平成为现阶段对当归价格指数波动造成影响的主要因素。结论 当归价格指数在中长期仍会震荡，可通过建立价格监测和预警机制；加快中药集采政策配套机制落地；建设产业大数据平台，发挥市场调控作用；并构建当归药材产业技术体系，突破关键技术问题，配合以相关政策实现平稳保供，从而实现整个产业可持续健康发展。

Objective Based on the Danggui (Angelicae Sinensis Radix) price index data of traditional Chinese medicinal materials market from January 2013 to July 2023, this paper adopted autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model to analyze the fluctuation periodic characteristics of Angelicae Sinensis Radix price index, also combined with the field investigation results to explore the influencing factors for the non-cyclical changes in Angelicae Sinensis Radix price index, thus to guide the price return to the reasonable range and form feasible countermeasures and suggestions. Methods Eviews 10.0 software was used to process the stationary sequence of 127 Angelicae Sinensis Radix price index original sample data, ARCH models were established to test the aggregation effect and leverage effect of data, analyze the characteristics of risk and return, and complete the price index fitting and trend prediction. Results The volatility of Angelicae Sinensis Radix price index presents a cluster of fluctuations and has “long-term memory”, there also has asymmetry and leverage effect. The influence of “negative news” is greater than “good news”. The fitting results of price index predict that it will still show an upward trend in the future, and the possibility of non-cyclical changes cannot be ruled out. Based on the empirical results and research data analysis, it can be seen that the external environment of the industry, the perfection of the policy supporting mechanism, the entry of external capital and the intensification level of the supply side are the main factors affecting the volatility of Angelicae Sinensis Radix price index at this stage. Conclusion The price index of Angelicae Sinensis Radix will still fluctuate in the medium and long term, and the price monitoring and early warning mechanism can be established. Accelerating the implementation of Chinese medicine collection policy supporting mechanism; Building an industrial big data platform and giving play to the role of market regulation; And constructing Angelicae Sinensis Radix medicinal material industry technical system, solving key technical issues, cooperating with the relevant policies to achieve stable supply, so as to achieve sustainable and healthy development of the entire industry.

国家中医药多学科交叉创新团队（道地药材生态化与资源可持续利用）支持计划（2021）；2023年度江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目（2023SJYB0317）；江苏省中药资源产业化过程协同创新中心重点项目（ZDXM-2022-09）；中央本级重大增减支项目（名贵中药资源可持续利用能力建设项目）（2060302-2303-14）；国家中医药管理局高水平中医药重点学科建设项目—中药资源化学（zyyzdxk-2023083）