为了促进我国中药产业可持续发展。结合德尔菲法和产业安全理论建立中药产业安全评价指标体系。通过文献研究、灰色预测法收集中药产业相关数据,利用熵权TOPSIS法对2007-2013年我国中药产业安全进行评价及实证分析。中药材价格、中药产业进口对外依存度、中药产业研发费用及中药专利对中药产业安全影响大;我国中药产业2007-2010年不安全,2011-2013年基本安全。通过实证分析对中药产业安全进行评价,结论可靠,对中药产业可持续发展具有指导意义。

To promote the sustainable development of Chinese materia medica(CMM) industry in our country. The safety evaluation index system of CMM industry was established by Delphi and industrial safety theory. Through literature research and gray prediction, the relevant data were collected and analyzed. The safety of CMM industry during 2007-2013 was evaluated and analyzed by entropy-weight and TOPSIS method. Prices of CMM, external dependence degree of import, CMM research and development costs and CMM patent have a great influence on the safety of CMM industry. Our CMM industry is not safe during 2007-2010, but basic safety during 2011-2013. Through the empirical analysis on the safety assessment in CMM industry, the conclusion is reliable and has guiding significance for the sustainable development of CMM industry.

国家中医药管理局与江苏省人民政府共建重点项目"基于知识产权保护的中医药产业安全政策研究"(SJGJ013)