随着知识经济的到来,技术创新日益重要.然而,风险是无处不在的,伴随着创新技术项目的技术风险管理问题越来越成为突出的亟待解决的问题.针对这一现实情况,提出了将模糊综合评价模型应用于技术创新风险管理的理念.同时,以中药创新药物技术为例,根据新药技术项目的特点,应用模糊数学理论,将定性问题定量化,客观地描述实际情况,构造出模糊综合评价模型.其评价结果可为技术项目的投资决策提供依据,在项目实施的过程中,管理者可根据风险因素的分析结果进行有的放矢的风险控制和风险规避,合理调整投资结构,从而提高科学决策水平.

With the coming of knowledge economics,technical innovation is becoming more and more important.However,the risk accompanied to the technical innovation exists everywhere and is a serious problem demanding prompt solution.Facing the realistic condition,a new idea on the application of vague comprehensive evaluation model to investigating the technical risk in Chinese materia mediea innovation project has been put forward.According to the properties of new drug project and the vague mathematic theory,the determined nature issue has been quantified,what happened described objectively,and a model of vague comprehensive evaluation constructed increasingly.The result provides a prerequisite for invest-merit and decision of the technical project.By the analysis of risk factors it is easy and aggressive to control and avoid the risk during the process of project implement.Generally the vague comprehensive evaluation model can be available and benefit to adjust the investment structure and to enhance the scientific decision level.

广东省社科规划项目资助(03/04L07)